The Obama Administration has called Summer 2010 the “Summer of Recovery.” While the economic numbers are remaining stagnant, there is a very different recovery on the way. As of right now, it appears likely that in the 2010 Midterm Elections that the Republicans will regain a majority in the House and possibly even the Senate. In the House, Real Clear Politics currently has the Republicans gaining 25 seats to a total of 203 and the Democrats losing 56 seats to a total of 199 with 33 toss ups in play. In the Senate, the Republicans are predicted to gain 3 seats to 44, with Democrats losing 9 seats to 48 with 8 seats listed as toss ups. Cook Political Reports just updated their predictions as having Republicans pick up 35-40 seats in the House. While there still is much to be calculated in the numbers game, many people see a second Republican Revolution of 1994 around the corner.
But perspective is necessary. The Republicans did not get to this point on policy alone. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, 60% of Americans believe that Congress does not care what the public thinks. This is a symptom of a Democrat Congress lead by the Obama Administration which governs by ideology rather than consensus. Whether it is the 13 trillion dollar and rising national debt, (which comes out to around $44,000 per person according to USDebtClock.org) the Healthcare Bill, which 56% of Americans oppose according to a CNN Opinion Research Poll, or the lawsuit of Arizona which according to a Rasmussen poll from the time the SB1070 bill was signed into law is supported by 60% of Americans, the Democrat Congress and the Obama Administration has come down on the side opposite of the American people.
This frustration with the government, in addition to the TEA Party movement’s growth has shifted power in Congress. However, Congress’ approval rating remains at 20% according to the Real Clear Politics average. This means that on average, only 1 in 5 Americans are satisfied with the direction of Congress. Republicans aren’t guaranteed to take back the House or the Senate. But with the Obama administration in power it is a much more difficult situation for the Democrats who must own up to the actions of their President and their Party.
Republicans only have to win 40 seats to gain a majority in the House and 10 to gain a majority in the Senate. But to do this, Republicans have to get encouraged and get out the vote. If they fail to do so, they will not recover from the losses of 2006 and 2008 this year. And if they don’t recover now then 2012 will be that much harder.